Projected incidence of overweight and obesity and related disease incidence across Poland.
The first objective is to project obesity trends to 2030 based on the current data from Poland. The second objective is to test the effect of a 1% or 5% decrease in population BMI upon future incidence and prevalence of related non-communicable diseases. A two-stage modelling design projecting overweight and obesity trends and related diseases in a microsimulation model was developed. Epidemiological data for entry into a microsimulation model were gathered from Poland. This study used population level data from Poland creating a virtual population within a microsimulation model. Obesity and overweight in Poland was found to increase to very high levels in men while trends remained unchanged in women. In a country that currently has about 38 million inhabitants, it is anticipated that by 2030, there might be more than 9 million new cancer cases; 10 million CHD and stroke cases, and 7 million new cases of type 2 diabetes. These findings have policy implications highlighting the need for action to curb trends and to reduce increases in the rates of diet-related non-communicable disease.